ECCM on how trend-following steers portfolios through uncertainty
This article was published by The Hedge Fund Journal and was authored by ECCM in interview with ECCM’s Founder & CIO, Adam Havryliv and CEO Simone Haslinger.
You can view the article here.
From shifting tariffs and stubborn inflation to political flashpoints and uneven growth, investors are navigating uncharted waters. Old maps no longer guide the course; new navigation tools are required.
At East Coast Capital Management (ECCM), Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer, and Adam Havryliv, Chief Investment Officer, believe enduring success isn’t about predicting the next squall, it’s about adapting to it with discipline. Their philosophy, systematic trend-following, provides a rules-based, resilient way to protect and grow wealth when traditional portfolios falter.
“In markets this uncertain, prediction is a gamble. Discipline is navigation.”
Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer, ECCM
“In markets this uncertain, prediction is a gamble. Discipline is navigation,” says Haslinger. In an era where visibility is low and emotions can steer investors off course, ECCM’s approach offers both compass and sail.
Markets on Edge: Uncertainty Defines 2025
Despite outward optimism in equities, Haslinger sees familiar warning signs on the horizon: US market concentration in technology, sluggish global growth, and fragile inflation dynamics.
“Investor surveys show increasing bearishness,” she notes. “Add tariffs and political uncertainty into the mix, and the risks are significant. In these conditions, rules-based discipline acts like a compass, keeping portfolios on course when visibility drops.”
Periods of stress also reveal how human emotion can distort decision-making. Havryliv points to market dynamics in 2022, when those that believed government bonds would insulate against a correction in equities were disappointed to see both equities and bonds fall.
“Our systems simply followed the data,” he explains. “That dynamism inherent in trend-following, and unemotional discipline, turned what was pain for most into opportunity for us.”
“Periods of stress often expose behavioural biases. Our systems are designed to overcome them,” notes Havryliv.
Periods of stress often expose behavioural biases. Our systems are designed to overcome them.
Adam Havryliv, Chief Investment Officer, ECCM
What Trend-Following Really Is (And Isn’t)
Trend-following is often mistaken for simply “chasing momentum”. While it seeks to harness what academic research calls time-series momentum, it’s far broader than that label suggests. Rather than reacting emotionally to price moves, it provides a rules-based framework that defines and follows trends objectively across a wide set of markets.
“It is a systematic strategy,” Havryliv says. “We define trends, buy or sell based on those signals, and apply strict risk management, cutting losses early and letting profits run.”
That discipline gives trend-following an ability to adapt when market regimes shift. “Most portfolios assume the world behaves as expected,” he explains. “But when inflation spikes or cycles break, those assumptions collapse. Trend-following shines because it responds, it doesn’t predict.”
For Havryliv, conviction in this approach came from a personal “light-bulb moment”.
“I realised trend-following thrived in certain market conditions when everything else failed,” he says. “It wasn’t about chasing short-term wins but building something robust enough to survive uncertainty. Once you see that, you start shaping your strategy around capturing those rare outlier opportunities that drive long-term success.”
That mindset, clear rules, consistent execution, emotional distance, sits at the core of ECCM’s process. The approach is not about forecasts or narratives. As Havryliv puts it: “You don’t argue with the wind; you set your sails to harness it. Trend-following is about trimming the sails as conditions evolve, adapting with precision rather than resisting forces beyond our control.”
You don’t argue with the wind; you set your sails to harness it. Trend-following is about trimming the sails as conditions evolve, adapting with precision rather than resisting forces beyond our control.
Adam Havryliv, Chief Investment Officer, ECCM
Why This Moment Matters for Investors
Periods of drawdown are uncomfortable, but Haslinger argues they’re precisely when trend-following is most compelling.
“History shows that trend-following often delivers its strongest gains coming out of drawdowns,” she explains. “Once markets find direction, those early, decisive moves can be some of the most powerful.”
Recent years have illustrated this point vividly. In 2023/2024, cocoa prices surged amid severe weather and supply shortages in West Africa, while in 2025 gold, silver and platinum rallied to record levels as investors sought real assets.
“Most portfolios had little to no exposure to those moves, outside of perhaps gold,” Haslinger notes. “But our systems picked them up early. Another example of relatively obscure markets are feeder cattle and live cattle futures, which have trended strongly through 2025. That’s the advantage of a rules-based approach, you capture opportunity wherever it arises, not where consensus expects it.”
A Strategy Proven Across Market Cycles
Trend-following’s resilience lies in its ability to thrive across environments, bull or bear, inflationary or deflationary, growth or slowdown.
Havryliv points to history:
- The 2000 tech boom: Trend followers stayed long equities far longer than “rational” investors who balked at lofty valuations – capturing gains before systematically stepping aside as trends reversed.
- Japanese government bonds in the 2010s: While many fundamental investors lost money shorting, trend followers profited from a bull run that persisted even into negative yields.
- 2008, 2020 and 2022: When the traditional 60/40 model faltered, trend-following captured moves in commodities, currencies and bonds, providing crucial offsetting returns when investors needed it most.
“These examples show that trend-following doesn’t depend on a single regime,” Havryliv explains. “It’s a methodology for continuously participating in markets, rational or not.”
“Our portfolios span equities, bonds, FX, and niche markets – almost 100 instruments globally,” Havryliv says. “The breadth is what makes it powerful.”
Beyond Market Cycles: Building Resilient Wealth for Decades
Trend-following is often seen as a hedge for turbulent years. Haslinger views it differently: as a lifelong companion strategy.
“The academic research demonstrates that over decades, it contributes to wealth preservation in three ways,” she explains. “It protects during crises, compounds steadily through uncorrelated returns, and adapts as markets evolve.”
That adaptability matters for generational wealth. Unlike static portfolios, trend-following seeks opportunity wherever it emerges, from commodities during inflationary phases to currencies and rates during policy shifts.
“A family’s wealth shouldn’t depend on one regime. Trend-following builds resilience that compounds quietly over lifetimes,” says Haslinger.
“Even a few percentage points of uncorrelated growth each year can transform long-term outcomes,” she adds. “It’s the quiet compounding effect that’s most under-appreciated.”
Debunking the Myths: Volatility, Commodities and Allocation
One common misconception is that trend-following is inherently volatile. Haslinger counters: “It can actually act as a stabiliser, often less volatile than equities because of its strict risk management”.
Another myth is that it’s purely about commodities. “Our portfolios span equities, bonds, FX, and niche markets – almost 100 instruments globally,” Havryliv says. “The breadth is what makes it powerful.”
Right-Sized for Every Portfolio
How much allocation makes a difference?
“From our modelling, even a 5-10% allocation can meaningfully improve diversification,” Havryliv explains. “But once you approach 20%, resilience increases dramatically, drawdowns reduce and returns smooth out.”
Accessibility has also improved. “Today, investors can gain exposure through managed accounts, ETFs, or liquid funds,” he says. “Unlike private equity or venture capital, there’s no multi-year lock-up. Trend-following remains one of the few liquid strategies that consistently diversifies when it matters most.”
Education, trust and communication matter as much as algorithms. Helping clients understand not just what we do, but why, is what builds lasting confidence.
Simone Haslinger, Chief Executive Officer, ECCM
Technology, AI, and the Next Era of Trend-Following
While trend-following’s principles are timeless – cut losses, ride winners – the tools surrounding it are evolving rapidly.
“Machine learning and AI enhance how we refine our research and process,” Havryliv says. “They’re excellent productivity tools, but they don’t replace the signal itself. The edge still lies in disciplined, rules-based design.”
“As financial markets expand – systematic investors are uniquely placed to capture emerging trends. Technology amplifies the timeless discipline of trend-following; it doesn’t redefine it,” says Havryliv.
The Takeaway: A Philosophy as Much as a Process
In today’s uncertain world, trend-following offers something rare – a systematic way to capture opportunities while insulating portfolios from shocks. It’s a discipline grounded in humility: responding, not predicting; adapting, not reacting. For Haslinger, the enduring success of ECCM isn’t measured only in numbers.
“Critically, investment management, even for a quantitative fund, is about people,” she said as she reflects on her first 12 months as CEO.
“Education, trust and communication matter as much as algorithms. Helping clients understand not just what we do, but why, is what builds lasting confidence.”
As markets shift and cycles evolve, that human element endures. Because while trend-following may be powered by data, its purpose is deeply human – to protect, preserve and grow wealth with clarity and conviction, whatever the conditions ahead.