FX Arbitrage, Regime Change & Classic Trend
At a moment when many trend benchmarks are moving in the same direction, a bigger question is emerging: Are we entering a new market regime – and does that favour classic systematic strategies?
In Episode 11 of the Aussie Turtles Turtle Talk podcast, the team explore what recent market behaviour may be signalling.
Joined by Sanjeev L. of Horizon3 Investment Management LLP, Adam Havryliv, Richard Brennan and Jerry Parker step back from short-term commentary to look at what we know about structure.
Inside the conversation:
- Are markets changing structurally?
When multiple trend indices line up at the same time, it can look decisive. But does alignment confirm a durable shift, or simply reflect temporary consensus? The team discuss what this rare moment of agreement might mean for allocators.
- Portfolio design: does construction matter more than prediction?
A practical debate on how systematic strategies are built and why position sizing, diversification and risk management often matter more than forecasts.
- FX arbitrage beyond directional bets
Sanjeev explains how market-neutral FX swap strategies seek to extract structural inefficiencies in currency markets – independent of whether markets are rising or falling.
- Are classic CTA conditions returning?
With inflation, rates and geopolitics reshaping the macro backdrop, the discussion turns to whether diversified trend strategies are once again operating in a more supportive environment.
As always, the focus is less on forecasting the next move, and more on building robust systems that can adapt across cycles.
You can watch or listen to the full episode here: