Fractals, Expectancy and Survival
The latest Turtle Talk brings charts, philosophy, and a strong dose of classic trend wisdom. Back to the usual segments, episode 7 covers:
- Battle of the Trend Indexes: where the Classic Trend Index shows a sharp V-shaped snapback
- What’s Moved the Needle: metals on fire (silver, gold, platinum), lessons from JGBs on “loose pants,” and why two coppers aren’t the same
- Turtle Tidbits: fractals vs Gaussian thinking, expectancy vs path dependence, why the cutback rule matters, and how small bets and positive skew keep compounding alive
- Shell Mail: audience questions on commodity sizing, the so-called “lost decade” for trend, and quantifying fat tails.
PS: The Aussie Turtles’ first book, The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide, goes live on Amazon next week.